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Sten Vesterli
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On 3/19/2020 at 8:03 PM, popky said:

pick up the dog.

Be still my heart...Mocha has no idea he's a "dog."  

All the best...Dave

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ColleenFrancis
On 3/25/2020 at 8:58 AM, Alan Weiss said:

Does everyone really need to be tested? I don't think so.

I agree as long as:

1. People self isolate if they worry they have been exposed. 

2. Social distancing is practiced to limit exposure

3. If you are feeling sick you treat yourself as if you do have the virus.

The curve is is definitely not flattening in the US generally. And Louisiana now has the fastest infection rate in the world largely from Mardi Gras and Mega church pastors holding services for 1000 people at a time according to the New Orleans Mayor.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR06iXnJjz4aEKYRZN3L4bVaIQ-gptP_59A-WNysh8tuGqRHDadKuM41tg8#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

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That's my point, if we follow the precautions provided, there is no reason for insanely long testing lines and dumb metrics while also using up test kits that could be held for the truly symptomatic. 

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patrickdaly

You can corral the virus by massive testing like in South Korea or by confining people rigorously to their homes and enforcing physical distancing  as in China or some intermediate combination of both applied with rigour.

Here in Ireland, we are combining both higher levels of testing than most other countries in the world with strict physical distancing measures that have have been ratcheted up gradually over the last few weeks.

Today the government announced new physical distancing restrictions on top of those that have been in place for the last two weeks. These now  essentially keep us in our homes permanently,  except for essential errants, essential work and exercise within 2km of our homes.

Our approach seems to be working. Our rate of growth in new cases has slowed from about 30% per day two weeks ago to about 15% per day now, our ICU cases have been manageable so far and our mortality rate, while tragic for every family involved,  is low in comparison to many of our close neighbours.

This thing needs to be combatted with rigour and everybody in the community needs to be on message. I recognise that as a small country it is much easier for us to have a uniformity of message and a sense of common purpose and this is not easily replicated in larger more complex societies such as the US. 

Our (acting) government, opposition, unions, academics, scientists, and business community are all on message and have been from the outset about a month ago when the first case was detected here. This has been crucial in the positive progress to date.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
Sten Vesterli

Denmark seems to be on a good trend, and our prime minister just announced that we're cautiously beginning to relax the restrictions. First phase right after Easter will see nurseries, kindergartens and grades 0-5 back in school. Oldest pupils in upper secondary and vocational schools will also be back in school to prepare for final exams. Borders, public offices, many shops to stay closed for another month.

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patrickdaly
34 minutes ago, Sten Vesterli said:

Denmark seems to be on a good trend, and our prime minister just announced that we're cautiously beginning to relax the restrictions. First phase right after Easter will see nurseries, kindergartens and grades 0-5 back in school. Oldest pupils in upper secondary and vocational schools will also be back in school to prepare for final exams. Borders, public offices, many shops to stay closed for another month.

That is the way it will be, bit by bit in a phased manner. Is the Danish government planning to ramp up testing in a significant way as it gradually lifts the restrictions?

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Sten Vesterli

Yes, we are ramping up testing. All caretakers and medical staff can now be tested on first suspicion, and we'll probably add more. We're also starting screening blood serum from a large sample to get an idea of how many have been infected and now have immunity.

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patrickdaly
55 minutes ago, Sten Vesterli said:

Yes, we are ramping up testing. All caretakers and medical staff can now be tested on first suspicion, and we'll probably add more. We're also starting screening blood serum from a large sample to get an idea of how many have been infected and now have immunity.

Sounds good - no doubt you guys will be among the leading scouts developing the best practices that other countries will follow.

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Sten Vesterli

Preliminary results of blood serum tests (from donors) show much lower case mortality than the 1-3% quoted by WHO.

It looks like we've had about 127,000 infected in Denmark to date, and we have 203 dead, i.e. we see a case mortality of 0.16%. That's good news.

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It is good news, and it shows we still don't know what we don't know.

By the way, I'm sorry for Denmark and its brand, but Bernie has dropped out of the race. The last windmill was one too many for him.

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Sten Vesterli
1 hour ago, Alan Weiss said:

By the way, I'm sorry for Denmark and its brand, but Bernie has dropped out of the race. The last windmill was one too many for him.

There will always be another...

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patrickdaly
8 minutes ago, Sten Vesterli said:

There will always be another...

AOC in 2024?

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patrickdaly
35 minutes ago, Alan Weiss said:

That ain't gonna happen.

Sure! After the TND needed to get the economy kickstarted this year the left will have the rug pulled from under them. 
TND = Trump New Deal 

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Sten Vesterli
51 minutes ago, patrickdaly said:

AOC in 2024?

Would make sense. After all, she's a Denmark fan too...

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patrickdaly
9 minutes ago, Sten Vesterli said:

Would make sense. After all, she's a Denmark fan too...

Probably..........

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On 3/22/2020 at 1:10 AM, Hamish Mackenzie said:

why I shouldn't get in my car, drive 45 minutes to the mountains, park my car, walk up the mountain and back down again, and drive back home.

We discouraged doing that here in case of accidents, either in the car or on trails, and having to call emergency service workers out of isolation. Naturally our usually high road toll has dropped dramatically. I feel for athletes who are confined for weeks.

The stats reported here are fascinating. Specific clusters are identified where local spread is evident: a school, two rest homes, a wedding, and a bar. There are 13 in all and account for half the cases. On April 20th we hear if lockdown is continued or we revert to level 3 two days later, which expands the definition of essential businesses and non affected schools would reopen. By then we will know if our strategy is working.

The leaders being provided by both politicians and public service leaders is relentlessly reliable, clear, simple, visionary and responsive to criticisms. The next steps will be critical in determining business confidence reopening the economy and return to productivity. Up until now, New Zealand is following an pandemic plan developed some years ago. With next steps, I doubt there is a firm, tried and true plan, yet.

 

 

 

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New York, while bad, is not as bad as projected, and curves are now flattening in many places. We might not have been prepared (for the unpreparable) but we certainly responded in depth.

In the US the "cannonball run" is now popular: Stocking field in the trunk, three people in the car, and heading from coast to coast averaging over 100 MPH. The record was just broken again, at 27 hours.

All crime in the US is down, except for auto theft. Domestic abuse and child abuse reports have declined. Cars are sitting around for the taking, and people are forced to spend time with each other without absence of the threat and the opportunity to call for help.

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Linda Henman

I'm a little concerned about the reports about child abuse. Many of them come from teachers, and since kids aren't in school, teachers aren't seeing them.  We won't know about this one until it's all over.

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patrickdaly

Our police chief says crime is down in general but there is spike in “domestic” incidents. Tough situation for many women and children especially, trapped with an abusive partner or parent. 

Edited by patrickdaly
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Dean Robinson just wrote me that Australia is considering strict bans on travel and the economy through December. I cannot see how that is even intelligent to talk about right now and/or what would justify it. I think it would effectively end all tourism and most of the tourism and hospitality industry. I welcome your thoughts, especially from Down Under. 

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No one knows yet what the situation will be at the end of the year. 

We are holding space at a hotel in Manhattan for the SAC annual meeting in October. It’s too soon to know if that can still happen, but we are in close contact with the hotel and reviewing the situation on a monthly basis. 

For an event like this to be feasible, there would have to be open travel without restrictions at least 60 days prior to the meeting date. If we don’t have an all clear by August, we will have to postpone, but we will postpone not cancel. 

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Roberta Matuson

This just in from Boston University.  There's a chance students will not return to campus until January of 2021. Other universities are developing similar contingency plans.

@Alan Weiss What do you think will be the short-term and long-term effect on higher education as a result of this pandemic? If you were advising the president of BU, what advice would you be giving him?

Edited by Roberta Matuson
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Roberta, I've never felt that school years and terms made sense, we "warehouse" kids, and I don't think ANYONE needs more than four years to "graduate" in any regular major. My advice would be to use this as a pivot point to change the nature of education, e.g.:

• Combinations of online learning, on campus learning, internship learning, mentored learning. (That's how I earned my PhD which was considered "non-traditional.")

• Change the basis of tuition.

• End tenure and evaluate everyone, every year.

• Create performance and knowledge assessments to earn the degrees. 

• Recognize that not everyone should go to college, and begin offering other kinds of learning.

Linda, I think we've overreacted as it is (I'm moving into my air raid shelter, wait, okay) and to turn this economy off until the end of the year would probably create massive civil unrest. I think May will see a gradual opening of the economy, staged in various states. By July we're functioning well. Of course, I said Trump could never be President.

You know (wait, I'm checking the shelter door—okay, it's locked) there's an old ethical conundrum: What if you held a terrorist who you knew had the location of a nuclear device about to detonate in New York in 24 hours? Would you torture him or her? To what extent? Do you, commensurately, condemn millions of people to poverty and degradation in order to save a thousand lives? Or even one life? That's why I'm trying to get people here to think of various ramifications and issues, and not just lock the doors. (What just clinked on the outside of my shelter? WHO DID THAT??)

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