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popky
18 minutes ago, Alan Weiss said:

 I think May will see a gradual opening of the economy, staged in various states. By July we're functioning well.

As my grandmother would have said, from your mouth to God's ears.

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Denmark is in full panic mode. As of noon today, the borders are closed for everybody but Danish citizens. Schools closed, universities closed, bars & restaurants closed (even McDonalds), all spor

Chinese proverb: Saving money by not lighting candles often results in twins. Are you going to let Bernie Sanders in? He needs someplace to go, and he's always seemed quite fond of the country.

Nah, we're not big on foreign welfare scroungers, even if they're fans...

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patrickdaly

Note that Austria and Denmark are beginning to lift some restrictions now already. Czech Republic and Germany may be moving this way soon. Spain reopened building sites and general manufacturing today with precautions. Here in Ireland we are looking at early May to begin our de-escalation. These rebooting measures will be gradual and phased over about two to three months, they will be managed very carefully and always prone to temporary reversal if infections spike again. They will also be accompanied by massive increases in community testing capacity both for the illness and for the antibodies. Best practices will emerge and be shared. First job however is to get ICU admissions down to manageable lessons and I think that is the battle you are engaged in now in US.

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Alan Weiss

My mother used to say that, Linda, and she was not religious!

Patrick, like I said....

(There was recently mob violence in Germany when police tried to get crowds to disperse.)

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patrickdaly

Some isolated incident, somewhere in Germany by some unruly individuals. What on Earth has that got to do with anything that I said?

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Alan Weiss

Nothing, I was just commenting on it. But now that you raise the issue, I think that gradual responses might increasingly be met with protest. It's hard to turn something "half on." I wasn't critiquing you, relax.

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patrickdaly

I agree they will be met with some grumbling and protest and I actually meant to mention it in what I wrote earlier. In fact the Spanish government has been lambasted by some of the opposition parties today for lifting some of the restrictions there. So what?  The shutdowns were met with grumbling and protest too. You are never going to please everyone and nobody knows the right answers here, probably even less so in the opening up than in the shutting down, and especially so in the countries that are first up. 

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Sten Vesterli
Posted (edited)

Having grown lazy on a steady diet of deaths to report on, the media are now casting around for a new source of clicks, and have taken to manufacturing controversy about opening up.

In Denmark, the format is contrasting the Director of the Danish Health Authority with vox pop interviews with Joe and Jane Public who are worried about this or that. Fortunately, hearing radio news as podcast allows me to skip those parts...

Edited by Sten Vesterli
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Alan Weiss

The northeastern governors, from New York through Massachusetts, including Rhode Island, are establishing a regional plan to lift restrictions, which I think is brilliant, and which I called for in response to someone asking me how I'd do things a few days ago. Geopolitical entities make no sense, since boundaries are largely arbitrary. Even Andy Cuomo is now saying "the worst is over," which was a lot less worse than was being predicted. 

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Roberta Matuson

I'm glad to see the states working together to establish regional plans. So what happens when a state, that borders those in the coalition, does something different? For example, when the state of Delaware opens up their beaches and MD doesn't. People will be crossing borders will little concern for the rules set by their own state.

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Alan Weiss

Delaware and Maryland are together in the New York/New Jersey coalition, as well, I believe. That's exactly the point of doing it regionally. The rules won't be for their own state, but for the region.

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Roberta Matuson

As of yesterday, it was reported that the following states are in the coalition. New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Delaware. Obviously, this could change daily.

 

Still begs the question of what happens when a bordering state, that is not in the coalition, establishes very different rules.

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Alan Weiss

Roberta, I think you're being somewhat pessimistic. I think the authorities—and people—will find some way to "get along," to quote Rodney King. This is a huge advancement, operating regionally, and all you see are reasons why it won't work or isn't perfect. "Begging the question" means "logically fallacious. I don't think that's the case here at all. 

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popky

If this regional approach works, do you think we will see this as an ongoing strategy? It might add a new dynamic to the political landscape. Instead of 50 states trying to address a specific issue, there might be 5-8 coalitions.

I'm not sure if that would be better or worse, but it certainly will be different.

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Alan Weiss

I don't because of politics, not because it doesn't work. New York and New Jersey can't agree on refurbishing and increasing the tunnels under the Hudson, where a kajillion dollars of commerce rides modern trains on ancient tracks every day. 

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Gary Covert

In Phoenix Arizona, Goodwill (a chain of non profit thrift stores) is reopening 21 of 90 metropolitan stores and 4 career centers. They feel they are essential services under the definition given by the governor. It is encouraging to me because first example I have seen of something opening back up. Has anyone seen other examples?

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Hamish Mackenzie

Germany announced an easing of restrictions yesterday, albeit one that is glacially slow, and seems to me to make very little sense.

The powers that be in Bavaria have interpreted it thus: Next week hardware stores and garden centres can reopen. The week after, most stores with a floorspace of less than 800 square metres (surely physical distancing is a lot easier in LARGER stores?). On May 4th, hairdressers and pedicurists. All will have to wear masks, have sanitizer on hand, etc. All shopping malls must remain closed for the foreseeable future. Wearing facemasks in public is advised, and may still be made compulsory. All restaurants and bars are likely to remain closed for many more weeks/months (with the exception of take out).

The soccer season may resume in May or June but only if the games are played in empty stadiums. We have also been told that it is virtually certain we will not be allowed to go on vacation outside of Germany this summer. I really don't know how European countries which are heavily reliant on international tourism are going to handle the complete cancellation of the summer season. Bavarians have also been warned that we can expect a massive influx of people from the rest of Germany during the summer, given that they can't go abroad. I guess it will be good for our local economy, but the traffic is going to be murder. I would also say it is 90% certain there will be no Oktoberfest this year.

From Monday I believe I will be allowed to be in the physical and social presence of one person outside of my immediate family. It is not clear to me how long we may be with each other, how close we are allowed to get, and if it has to be the same person every day. Finding out will of course have a significant influence on who I consider! I am thinking of conducting interviews to select the lucky individual(s) in advance.....

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Praveen

Here, hardware stores have been open, but the Menards  (it's a big-box home improvement chain like Home Depot) near us did a smart thing.  It banned anyone under 16.  That encourages families to stay away, and just send one person to do the shopping—get in, get out.  I think we need ideas like that as things open up.

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patrickdaly

Hamish does your missus have a veto on that decision?

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Hamish Mackenzie
2 hours ago, patrickdaly said:

Hamish does your missus have a veto on that decision?

I don't think she's even aware I'm surreptitiously vetting people....

But I will of course move forward in a spirit of full disclosure!

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popky

Hamish, you may not agree with how the lockdown is proceeding, but Germany is being recognized as one of only 4 countries in the world that took appropriate measures to stop the virus before it spread throughout the community.

The other three countries are Iceland, Taiwan (which has only had 6 deaths in a population of 24 million), and New Zealand.

There are a lot of other places in the world who would love to be in the position Germany is in now, in spite of the inconveniences you are facing. Or maybe because of them.

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patrickdaly

It seems that some of the key factors in Germany were its testing capacity and the speed of mobilisation of that capacity, as well as a well-funded and well-equipped health service. In fact, many of the swabs currently being  taken in Ireland are analysed in German laboratories.
Indeed testing capacity is emerging as a key prerequisite in a country’s ability to ease up on restrictions while keeping the risk of a second wave at bay.

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Diana

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Here is a graphic of what has occurred in New Zealand. Next Wednesday we emerge from lock down, to level 3, a wider variety of shops and businesses open, 6ft distancing for those who return to work, courier deliveries have been massively freed up,  under 10's can be at school on a voluntary basis, we can expand our 'bubbles' to include 1 - 2 more people we live with. No gatherings larger than 10 for weddings and funerals, no pubs or restaurants open other than for takeaways and non contact deliveries. More clarity on actual unemployment numbers likely. PM, cabinet ministers, and public sector CEO's taking a 20% pay cut.  Regional travel will open up to visit family, but no holidays. My nephew Lance created the graphic. He is a lawyer, and being highly competitive, he wanted New Zealand to beat the virus.

 

 

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