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Covid prediction

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Sally

The president's language has changed dramatically in the last few days. We will hear good news about the effectiveness of azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine. Many businesses will reopen within 2 weeks.

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Sten Vesterli

Let's hope the optimism is warranted. We need to get some information out before more people die from ingesting anything that says chloroquine. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/man-dies-after-ingesting-chloroquine-attempt-prevent-coronavirus-n1167166

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Alan Weiss

For me, the obscenity is people using this contagion for political mud-slinging instead of coming together with a united front. I'm tired of reporters trying to blame the President, tired of both parties blaming each other, and exhausted by Andrew Cuomo who whines and blames others every time he's in front of a camera. You're the governor, take action. He sure ain't his father, Mario, who was a great leader.

The New York Times, every day, slants every single illness story against Trump, their op ed columnists are like dogs with bones in their mouths. 

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Kim Wilkerson

Alan -- What do you think has been done well/right/effectively on the national, state, and local levels throughout the US? 

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Diana

Interesting developments in New Zealand. 205 confirmed cases, 6 in hospital, none in ICU, 24 recovered.

From Midnight last night everyone is in self isolation bubbles in their homes with no outside social contact.

Key messages are:

Where you stayed last night, you must stay for the next four weeks

if you are in contact with others, you are likely to kill someone.

Everyone has a role in helping save a life

Co-operate.. stay at home...save lives

Stay in your own bubble, clear metophor,

People living alone, share a buddy bubble with one other person

Separated people share children only if they are in the same town

Tourist must stay in one place for the next month

Our PM says it is up to us to save lives.

Homeless shelters are essential services, as are shelters for victims of family violence

The humour is great; we have the isolation olympics running on a current events program

Police and enforcement agencies are initially encouraging and assisting, by Friday, they will be enforcing

The public sector leaders show impressive collaboration, (Police, Health, Business, Emergency Management, Science,  and Federal Services) clarity of direction and expectation, are personable, clear roles, respond clearly and simply to journalists questions. The PM does a public Q and A on facebook some evenings. All this makes it easy to co-operate.

We are told the numbers of affected people will rise for the next 10 days, and then begin to fall if we follow through with what has been put in place.

The really good news is that the Mosque assassin changed his plea to guilty in Killing 51 and injuring many more today, saving us all the horror of a trial.

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simma

I see more creative ways to collaborate and connect.  There will be more collaboration  on new ways to get work done and be productive together while apart. This is a necessity.. Perhaps new protective masks or clothing will be created. If we can get past ethnocentrism (across the globe) great minds will figure out vaccines, cures or prevention together.)  Online dating will take on a new look with zoom dates. (maybe a new reality show)

I just attended a virtual dance party held by DJ D-Nice.. HIs first had 100,000 people with every kind of people including Michelle Obama.  The one day was to get people to register to vote and when I left there were 25,000 people in attendance. It was all about virtual community across the globe.

I've been "hanging out" at certain meetings with people from across the country and the world, Denmark, Israel, India, parts of Africa and the UK. It's exciting. I hope we'll see more people interacting with each other and that it will continue.

 

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Alan Weiss

Diana, I see that as a mammoth overreaction. I'm aghast at that level of restrictions of freedom.

I want to report that in Rhode Island, as of this morning, the two major hospital chains' presidents (both MDs) report that they are at about 30% capacity, have plenty of supplies, and that they both believe the infection curve has flattened. I thought I'd share some good news here. Also, TLM is making cheeseburgers tonight, which I intend to have with a bottle of Opus. Still more good news.

Kim, I'll try to keep this from becoming an epistle, sort of like the Second Letter of Alan to the Forumites, but here goes:

Poor, just to get it off my chest:

• Political bickering and blaming. Disgusting, we should throw them all out. Chuck Schumer is close to reprehensible, and Cuomo ought to man-up and grow a set.

• Lack of a nationally-integrated response. There is plenty of food and, actually, plenty of medical equipment. Like capitalism itself, it's not the generation of wealth, it's the distribution that's not good enough.

• Social media rumor, hate, and absurd advice, complete with stupid videos. I've never been a huge fan of democracy in complex societies, and that position has been hardened.

• Over-emphasis on testing for those who don't need it and which overwhelms the system and consumes resources.

• Overlooking the relatively low death rates, the fact that cases are cumulative and not "new," and the very, very high recovery rates.

Effective and impressive:

• We have the best medical system, professionals, and expertise in the world here, and this crisis proves it. They are dedicated, risk their lives, are working on vaccines, and in the face of an unexpected explosion are creating effective responses and calm.

• Semi-draconian measures. Closing the schools, the athletic leagues, Broadway, concerts, and so forth took a lot of guts and hurts a lot of people, but it was necessary both medically and symbolically. 

• The media, insofar as they keep everyone informed of facts when they're not busy with their native biases. I've found that the Presidential and gubernatorial press conferences every day have been informative and helpful, though neither Trump of Governor Raimondo up here have any clue about how to speak publicly. 

• The rallying of American industries. They are turning to producing what's needed, donating resources, and responding well. Merck and others are doing wonderful things and I'd like Sanders to go through these institutions and identify just whom he meant when he called the executives "gangsters."

• The symbolic importance of sending everyone below a certain income level a check. The subsidies provided for small and large businesses. (Are we supposed to allow the airlines to fail?) The suspension of mortgage payments by banks. Low interest loans provided. To do this in a country of 350 million people is staggering, historically unapproached. 

What you're seeing is the most pluralistic country in the world, rent by polarized politics and idiot, selfish politicians, rallying to defeat a scourge. We will develop vaccines (this flu will return in the fall. I believe), we will develop treatments, we will create some safer social policies, and we'll get back on our feet. What you are seeing is evidence of strength for those who refuse to panic. In Fearless Leadership I wrote about flight, fright, and fight. You don't run from this, as some people have tried by fleeing to second homes; you don't hide under the bed frightened, as too many people have done by hoarding; you fight the damn thing.

Am I answering your question? I have to get back to another busy day of helping people remotely.

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Kim Wilkerson

Yes. And, then some. 

I asked because "I hear" mixed messages from you here (the dangers of interpreting written communications instead of a dialogue). Sometimes it appears you're generally critical of certain actions/decisions, based on your comments here.  But, when asked directly, you see it as a positive. (example: previous unsolicited critical commentary on social restrictions and when asked directly for positives here, you say the closings "took a lot of guts but it was necessary both medically and symbolically.")

I realize we can be critical of one aspect of something and complimentary of another aspect of that very same topic. They're not mutually exclusive and it's not an all or nothing proposition. So, it's not that I'm looking for "consistency." I'm looking for your perspective. 

All that to say, I asked because I'm curious and wanted to know what you think is "the good stuff" in terms of decisions and actions, because it wasn't clear to me. 

Edited by Kim Wilkerson
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Alan Weiss

The issue is like my "permission meter." The question usually isn't over the intent of the action, but it's scope. I think what's happening in New Zealand, if I understand Diana's report, is ridiculous. I think looking at things ever 15 days or so to make policy decisions makes sense. But I also think we have to balance what everyone is afraid to discuss: Do we try to save every single life possible at the expense of deteriorating everyone else's life for years?

I don't see "blanket" good or bad in almost anything, It's how we interpret shades of grey that determines our success in life.

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patrickdaly

Some positive news.

In Ireland, the first tranche of restrictive measures came into force on March 13th. At that point the rate of increase in infections was 30% per day. These restrictive measures were enhanced about 10 days later. The rate of increase has now slowed to 24% per day and continues to slow.

If we continue at the 24% p.d. increase, the total number of infections by Easter will be just 38% of what it would have been had we continued on the original trajectory without the measures. Given that the rate of increase is still decreasing, we may well do even better than that. 

Factories, warehouses and building sites are still working as well as essential services. Building sites may be shut soon because they are not able to respect the physical distancing requirements as effectively as others. Everything else is shut. The government plans to review measures again on April 19th. We may well be in a better place by then and we will see what happens.

By the way our PM is a trained medical doctor and a pro-business, centre-right politician.

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Diana
15 hours ago, Alan Weiss said:

I see that as a mammoth overreaction. I'm aghast at that level of restrictions of freedom.

yes it looks like it, but in a small country like ours, losing 40 or more of our top nurses and clinicians would dramatically affect our capacity to deliver health services across the country. None of here want to be responsible for those loses. We have our first ICU case today.

I've just come off a zoom call with a small group of CEOs. Two were from organisations who have senior leaders who are also clinicians, and who are now now directly assisting in providing clinical services.

The good news is this CEO group wants to meet weekly during April.

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Alan Weiss

New Zealand has roughly 5 million people. Rhode Island has 1 million, and does not have ocean boundaries on three sides which you do on four. We are requiring that people coming here from New York spend 14 days in self-isolation, and we're checking train, airport, and bus terminals, using the National Guard. We're also stopping cars with New York plates at the Connecticut border, but not interstate commerce. But we are free to move around, shop at what's open, visit friends, etc. 

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patrickdaly
2 hours ago, Alan Weiss said:

New Zealand has roughly 5 million people. Rhode Island has 1 million, and does not have ocean boundaries on three sides which you do on four. We are requiring that people coming here from New York spend 14 days in self-isolation, and we're checking train, airport, and bus terminals, using the National Guard. We're also stopping cars with New York plates at the Connecticut border, but not interstate commerce. But we are free to move around, shop at what's open, visit friends, etc. 

And you won’t be leaving the United States no more than Denmark will be leaving the European Union after shutting its border with Germany. 

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Alan Weiss

I'm not sure of your parallel, there. The EU was supposed to be one political entity with open borders. I can certainly go to Massachusetts or Connecticut if I need to. How do you have a "union" that takes parochial views and acts on them? It simply doesn't work and it's not going to work.

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popky
3 hours ago, Alan Weiss said:

We are requiring that people coming here from New York spend 14 days in self-isolation, and we're checking train, airport, and bus terminals, using the National Guard. We're also stopping cars with New York plates at the Connecticut border, but not interstate commerce. 

Alan, this seems almost impossible to police. Seems to me that people fr RI, CT, NJ, and PA move among themselves and NY on a constant basis.  
 

Have they shut down Amtrak from NYC as well? 

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Roberta Matuson
4 hours ago, Alan Weiss said:

We're also stopping cars with New York plates at the Connecticut border,

@Alan Weiss, What if these people are in transit? Not staying in RI...passing through?

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Alan Weiss

Actually, they have a good system. At the train, plane, and bus stations, if you get off you identify yourself and if you're from New York (or originated there)  your name and phone number and local address are recorded by the National Guard. They make periodic checks at random on the required self-isolation. People are certainly no longer moving amongst them selves on a constant basis among states here.  New York plates are being stopped at the border, not exactly difficult for the National Guard with radios and the state police.  In transit you simply keep going, and no trailer tractors are stopped. 

It's not perfect, but then again, who's seeking perfection? I think it will be a deterrent as well as better contingent action than not trying to do it. And, symbolically, it adds some heft to other things the governor is trying to do. 

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Alan Weiss

Courtesy of a reader pointing out that I anticipated current conditions in 2011 in The Consulting Bible.

IMG_0567.JPG

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Alan Weiss

At the risk of slings and arrows again for proposing that there are other ways of looking at circumstances as curious intellects, I'm providing this link sent to me by a long-time community member. I'm merely suggesting that we open our minds a tad. If you don't agree or are skeptical, fine. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/06/an_advantaged_disease_indeed_142867.html?mc_cid=53ebe2e30e&mc_eid=d8ea95191e

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patrickdaly
54 minutes ago, Alan Weiss said:

At the risk of slings and arrows again for proposing that there are other ways of looking at circumstances as curious intellects, I'm providing this link sent to me by a long-time community member. I'm merely suggesting that we open our minds a tad. If you don't agree or are skeptical, fine. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/04/06/an_advantaged_disease_indeed_142867.html?mc_cid=53ebe2e30e&mc_eid=d8ea95191e

The more nuanced approach to identification and control of the spread of the virus proposed in the article has merit.
To do that successfully requires very effective wide-scale testing both for the illness and for the antibodies. Most countries had nowhere near the capability to do this on the scale required and hence many have resorted to blanket measures as have several US states.

There were some exceptions to this such as South Korea where they had learned from the previous experience of SARS and had the plans and resources in place. Germany also has done quite well with large scale testing and with less stringent restrictions in some its Länder than in many other European countries. For example, my son lives in Berlin and they are not as restricted as we are here in Dublin. 

A more nuanced approach like this with enhanced testing and monitoring capability may very well form part of the exit strategies now the the ICU crisis seems to be passing in some parts of Europe. It may also be how we deal with possible future reoccurrences later this year or next year.

See, no slings and arrows.

Edited by patrickdaly

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Praveen

No slings and arrows, but a couple of points:

1.  I think it's "apples and oranges" to compare Coronavirus deaths with deaths from other causes because: a) most of those causes aren't highly contagious; b) they are spread out over the year and over all locations.  They don't threaten to occur at the same time, causing surges in local areas, and overwhelming health care.

2. I think Coronavirus is a good example of why human nature makes it hard to take preventive measures vs. having to rely on contingent solutions.  If preventive measures (in this case saying at home, social distancing) work very well, then they will always appear as "over kill" to Monday morning quarterbacks.

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Alan Weiss

Even social distancing, a phrase I've come to loath along with "an abundance of caution," is contingent. It's meant to prevent spread, but it's an after-affect of the problem occurring, no less than sprinkler systems prevent spread.

I'm just interested in putting varied points of view in front of people. 

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Praveen
4 minutes ago, Alan Weiss said:

It's meant to prevent spread, but it's an after-affect of the problem occurring, no less than sprinkler systems prevent spread.

Alan,

That brings up an interesting point: it seems like there are many levels of prevention:

1. Prevent the initial animal-human transmission (ban wet markets in China).

2. Prevent the spread outside of China (isolate China from all other countries/continents).

3. Prevent the spread after it reached the U.S.

Would you only consider #1  to be preventive, and the others to be contingent?

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Kevin Berchelmann
1 hour ago, Praveen said:

If preventive measures (in this case saying at home, social distancing) work very well, then they will always appear as "over kill" to Monday morning quarterbacks.

The problem, of course, is we can't actually prove those quarterbacks wrong. There's real science-backed research claiming both extreme ends of the continuum, and hundreds of pints in between.

Those claiming a likely U.S. death toll of 150,000-200,000+ are in a no-lose situation. If we hit it (God forbid), they were correct. If we don't, it's solely because of preventative measures, without specific evidence (the correlation/causation argument).

Monday morning quarterbacks exist on both "sides" of this. Throw in politics, and the applied long-term learning could be specious at best (my biggest go-forward concern).

But that's just me...

KB

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Alan Weiss

Ergo, the nonsense of predictions.

Praveen, the only effective preventive for this horror show is your #1. In this case, sophistry aside, everything you suggest may be preventive caused the loss of lives, business, and repute.

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