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popky

There's a whole set of consequences to this situation that I don't think most people have considered yet.

First, the good news is just about all the medical researchers in the world are working diligently on COVID-19 to find treatments and preventative measures (vaccines). The bad news is just about all the medical researchers in the world are working on COVID-19--and nothing else. Already organizations like JDRF are cutting back on diabetes research, and many clinical trials (including cancer treatments) are put on hold because either patients can't get to the trial centers or the trial centers are no longer safe for cancer patients.

A good friend of mine is a pediatric oncology nurse who travels the world teaching nurses in developing countries how to safely do bone marrow transplants, which, if done properly, cut the mortality rate from childhood cancers dramatically. She had trips to Vietnam, Singapore, India, and Ethiopia scheduled in the next few months that have now been cancelled, and she thinks it will be at least a year before these efforts start up again.

Second, we've heard about how flattening the curve will help to avoid overwhelming our health care systems, but overcrowded ICUs is just the tip of the iceberg. This pandemic is doing serious damage to our medical infrastructure. Some providers are dying from the disease, others are getting sick and will need to recover. There will be others that will suffer from PTSD after this, and still others who will be burned out and say, I've had enough and I'm out of here once this is over (Being accused of stealing and hoarding masks is not helpful, either).

You can't just churn out competent medical professionals overnight. There's nursing or medical school, then internships and residencies, then time to build experience through treating patients. It will take at least a decade to get the ranks of medical providers back to where we were before this.

All of this is in addition to whatever the death toll winds up being from the virus itself, and the enormous economic consequences.

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Not one article I've seen in the last 48 hours said you CAN'T pick up the disease from surfaces. They all said, "it doesn't easily transmit that way." They still caution that you can become infected b

I will chime in. I am currently using future-proofing manufacturing and supply chain as my overarching theme as well as for my eBook on navigating and successfully emerging from the pandemic, and so I

Interesting developments in New Zealand. 205 confirmed cases, 6 in hospital, none in ICU, 24 recovered. From Midnight last night everyone is in self isolation bubbles in their homes with no outsi

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Diana

This article makes sense to me.

What really caused politicians to  shut down thousands of businesses, shut schools, force many people onto government welfare, or bankruptcy?

Was it really so we don't have a lot of people ill at the same time. Or was it the threat of multiple deaths like 30 - 40% of country populations.

I think the threat of older people dying on their own was unconscionable to many, as was pending shortages of toilet paper, and in our country, flour. The lock down has released a myriad of home bakers, as something creative families can do.

Death for any family is traumatic and is always too soon for those left behind. Collectively, more people die on the roads each year in New Zealand than likely covid-19 deaths. 14,000 was predicted in our country. So far in New Zealand we have 1 death from this disease.

I am intrigued that the choice of governments around the world have chosen 'self isolation' and going home. Jacob Moreno coined the term 'social atom' as the smallest number of people we need around us to retain our resilience and vitality. He was referring to people who are emotionally important to us. Many of us have returned to our current social atoms, both physically and increasingly electronically. The main social benefits of returning to our social atoms is  likely to be people choosing who they want to be with, rather than tolerating relationships and working environments which don't create vitality. That we all are having wide ranging experiences from similar living restrictions might well produce greater empathy for one another

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There are many consequences to what we are doing. Some you have outlined Linda and others. A dramatic surge in non-degradable plastics waste with discarded PPE's, and hand sanitiser containers is yet another consequence. 

  Total to date New in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 911 39
Number of probable cases 195 28
Number of confirmed and probable cases 1,106 67
Number of cases in hospital 13  
Number of recovered cases 176 20
Number of deaths 1

One lever which needs to be rapidly released in our country to help people tolerate this lockdown is online shopping and delivery.

There is unrest from consumers, food producers and the business community on what is being identified as essential services; coffee makers, but not clothes, supermarkets but not fruit and vegetable outlets.

This alone is likely to be a pass or fail for how our country is being led. 

 

   
     
     
     
     
     
     
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JeffreyScott

The WSJ had an excellent opinion piece last week on the problem with these studies––lack of quality data, poor assumptions, very old computer programs that are using, and theses (premise) that are misleading. It claims thus the main issue is lack of effective peer review. It calls for 'open source' peer review.

On another note, here is an interesting article about the Plague and Shakespeare. What we are experiencing is not new, even though it feels brand new to us. Perhaps we just have to look to history to see how this thing unfolds.

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/04/06/shakespeare-plague-coronavirus

 

 

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andrewhollo
11 minutes ago, JeffreyScott said:

On another note, here is an interesting article about the Plague and Shakespeare. What we are experiencing is not new, even though it feels brand new to us. Perhaps we just have to look to history to see how this thing unfolds.

So true. Bocaccio's "The Decameron" was written around 1350, and his 10 storytellers (who each tell 10 stories over 10 days) are self-isolating in a villa outside Florence because of the Black Death. So, yes, what we're doing is nothing new. 

Andrew

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Alan Weiss

My observation is that we should all read all opinions, otherwise we're polarized no less than the two disappointing political parties in this country. 

I also think it's futile to study and analyze death rates and curves, since no one knows what they think they know. This just proves the hubris of humans, once again, in a universe we think we understand, but we don't. 

The world has been through all this before without the modern contingent actions we have today and without the benefits we're enjoying right here on this Forum. I've tried to concentrate on helping myself so that I can help others, and I'm not coaching more people concurrently than ever before. I've moved my workshops to virtual means. I'm helping in the community. The Four Horsemen are not a myth, they're a message.

Overall, on balance, on the other hand, yada yada yada, I still think we've overreacted on shutting the economy down and the ramifications of that will be with us for quite some time. I'm not "blaming" anyone—who could have been adequately "prepared"? But I do think we could have reacted better, more unified, less frightened. 

Linda, I love you, but you have a hell of a lot of friends who keep giving you one-off advice and insights! I'm going to create a "no one-off advice" sign!

Everyone stay well, keep up the moral debates, but let's stop looking at statistics. We're people, not numbers.

(And here's a plug: I don't think any of you would deny the great value of this community during this time of crisis [and during other times].. Imagine if you had such a network with your clients and prospects prior to all this? I'm doing the Community Workshop in May, it's on my site, via Zoom, two mornings. I'm also doing a livestream on individual strategies for consultants next Thursday, April 16, recorded as well. It's $1,000, or $1,500 for a follow up afterwards over 90 days. Write to me to register, it won't be on my site.)

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Kevin Berchelmann

Me, in a venn...

KB

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JeffreyScott

Kevin, I would not have put you in the middle of that.

 

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Becky Morgan
43 minutes ago, Kevin Berchelmann said:

Me, in a venn...

KB

FB_IMG_1586307637514.jpg

KB - the word ‘very’ is only in the bottom circle. Can I assume that is intentional for emphasis?

Remove it there, or add it to both the others and I’m with you.

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patrickdaly

All of these are concerns but they are not all of the same magnitude and they vary by time and location.

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andrewhollo
8 hours ago, Kevin Berchelmann said:

Me, in a venn...

KB

FB_IMG_1586307637514.jpg

Kevin,

What are the authoritarian government policies that concern you in the US? I'm curious.

Andrew

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Kevin Berchelmann
12 hours ago, JeffreyScott said:

Kevin, I would not have put you in the middle of that.

Crazy times, Jeffrey... B) which one(s) caught you by surprise?

5 hours ago, patrickdaly said:

...but they are not all of the same magnitude and they vary by time and location.

You are certainly welcome to your personal opinion on this.

3 hours ago, andrewhollo said:

What are the authoritarian government policies that concern you in the US? I'm curious.

I'm generally uncomfortable with most government-driven restrictions, but I get especially nervous when times like these provide cover to arrest religious leaders, release convicted prisoners and restrict the sale of guns and ammunition. 

There's more, but those three make good poster children.

But that's just me.

KB

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Kevin Berchelmann
11 hours ago, Becky Morgan said:

the word ‘very’ is only in the bottom circle. Can I assume that is intentional for emphasis?

Becky, I stole the image from somewhere, so I didn't intentionally add "very." I certainly agree where it sits now. For me personally, I might add "very" to the upper right "expansion" circle, but not in the upper left "seriously" circle.

Again, that's just me.

KB

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scottsimmonds

I have been thinking about what my cook-out will look like on July 4. 

I have the virus now.  My Dad has recovered from it.  My wife will undoubtably get it.  My Mom died Monday from it.

My sister lives 4 miles away. She has not had it. Neither has her husband or daughter.  Let's assume they don't get it.

Let's assume a quarter of the 20 other people we would invite on July 4 get it between now and then.

So we have a total of 8 people out of 26 who have had it.  Is my cookout 8 people who come and enjoy a "normal" cookout as we all are now immune (assuming normal virus immunity)? 

Is my cookout 26 people wearing name tags of different colors indicating immunity?  With 8 of us interacting and the other 18 spread around my deck and yard social distancing?

Actually we know some of the 18 will have had it but did not know they had it.

By July will we all be taking antibody tests to see who has had it but did not know they had it - so they can have a normal cookout?

Will it be the antibody test that helps us reopen our economy and society as we learn who is immune from prior exposure?

Will we have drive-up antibody testing centers?

 

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ColleenFrancis

Scott, I'm so sorry to hear about your Mom. My heart goes out to you and your family.

Please be safe and take care of yourself and your wife.

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Alan Weiss

Scott, Maria and I send our deep sympathies to you for the loss of your mother, and our hopes and prayers that anyone else with the infection, like your Dad did, recovers. 

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Sally

Scott, what sad news. I am so sorry about your Mom. I do hope you will come through your illness as well as possible. Please let us know how you are doing.

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Praveen

Scott, I'm sorry to hear about your mother.  I hope you recover quickly, and no one else in your family gets it.

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Sten Vesterli

Sorry about your loss.

It seems the blood serum antibody test is basic blood work that any lab can do. We've started screening blood donors in Denmark (starting there because we already have the blood) and will screen wider later. I am confident that American ingenuity will come up with a machine to deliver the result in minutes.

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dgardner

Scott...deepest condolences on the loss of your mother.

All the best to you and your family....Dave

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popky

Scott,

So sorry to hear about what your family is going through, and the loss of your mother. I can't even imagine how difficult this must be for you. I hope you all find the strength to get through this and recover quickly. Take the time to be good to yourself and recover--don't push to do too much too soon.

I am working with a client now who is producing an ecumenical eBook of prayers to help those who are affected by the coronavirus. If you think this might be helpful, I would be happy to send this to you in the next few days once it's complete.

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patrickdaly

Condolences Scott and best wishes to you and your family in these difficult times. 

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JeffreyScott

Scott,  I am so deeply sorry for you loss. 

I am glad you are still thinking about moving forward. I would wait till you get closer to July 4, and it will become clearer what to do.

 

@Kevin Berchelmann, I would not have placed you as someone worried about economic "devastation." That's such a loaded term.

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Kevin Berchelmann

Scott, I am so sorry to hear of your mom's passing. I hope you continue to recover, and you and family are in our prayers.

 

20 minutes ago, JeffreyScott said:

I would not have placed you as someone worried about economic "devastation."

Ahh, that makes sense. @JeffreyScott; I simply took it as a placeholder for "impact" more than devastation. The limitations of stealing someone else's image, I guess. 

KB

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Alan Weiss

I've maintained all along that the economic toll on lives will be worse than the medical toll.

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patrickdaly

It will be interesting to see now how those countries that are cominh out the other side manage the reboot of their economies and what best practices emerge. Denmark, Austria, and Germany are moving that way now. Italy and Spain thereafter and so on from east to west.

Edited by patrickdaly
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