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Diana

Good to have a stake in the ground Jeffry. The challenge is how to have policies which people find relatively  easy to comply with.

Two aspects of the logic you have here scares me. In New Zealand, there have been 20 deaths,  spread over people in their 60; 70’s, 80, and 90’s. Half of these were in one dementia care hospital. I don’t think any one of those people or their families were ready for them to die.

The scary aspects:

  1. 1.  Including grand-parents in with the elderly would essentially  take out many people over 50.

2         2. Unsafe jobs has to include all front line health and emergency services workers which won’t work

Edited by Diana
weird layout

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popky
38 minutes ago, JeffreyScott said:
  • Let the kids and young adults go back to school right away, assuming they are not living with their grandparents.

HI Jeffrey. Are you presuming all the people who would interact with kids in school would be of fairly young age? What about the teachers, aides, administrators, cafeteria workers, bus drivers, etc? Do we sacrifice them in service to the youth? Or do we layoff all of the teachers/administrators with experience and bring in only young people to staff the school system? And do we limit the young people who are all exposed and are therefore potential carriers from going out other places and interacting with people in stores, parks, shops, etc. that will not have immunity?

Once we start saying it's ok to sacrifice one segment of the population to save another, it becomes a very slippery slope. Are we ok letting this go rampant through prisons or immigrant camps, or the homeless, or the mentally ill, or people in assisted living/nursing homes, etc? Who makes the decision about who shall  be protected and who not? Do we sacrifice people in certain income or ethnic groups? who makes those decisions and by what criteria?

And when you talk about developing a strategy to protect the "elderly," remember that according to what's being defined as the high risk "elderly" population includes many of us in this community, including the man whose picture is on top of the page. Are you saying all of us should be holed up in our homes for the next 2 years, because we are considered high risk? How long do you think we could get anyone in this group to go along with that?

I don't have a better answer for this, but you can see why it's not easy to just go ahead and implement the kind of approach you're suggesting.

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Alan Weiss

IT'S ONLY THE ELDERLY WITH UNDERLYING MEDICAL PROBLEMS AND IMMUNE DEFICIENCIES. 

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Alan Weiss

The more people tested, the more positive people, who are also otherwise healthy or recuperating with no ill effects. The actual death rate percentage, therefore, is far lower than projections as we realize how many people are positive and living just fine. I repeat: IT IS NOT THE "ELDERLY." In Rhode Island and New York, the largest infection percentage is hispanic. Should we create greater restrictions for Hispanics? 

Let's stop debating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin (spoiler: it's 346,896,543.090) and address the real issues of recovery and growth for our businesses and our clients. These circular debates are starting to irritate me, never a good sign. The fact is, we know almost less than nothing, we have data but little knowledge and zero wisdom. Focus on helping others and not drawing sine curves into infinity. Bentley is sitting here with a red flag is his mouth.

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Sten Vesterli
12 hours ago, popky said:

Are you presuming all the people who would interact with kids in school would be of fairly young age? What about the teachers, aides, administrators, cafeteria workers, bus drivers, etc? Do we sacrifice them in service to the youth? Or do we layoff all of the teachers/administrators with experience and bring in only young people to staff the school system? And do we limit the young people who are all exposed and are therefore potential carriers from going out other places and interacting with people in stores, parks, shops, etc. that will not have immunity?

In Denmark we have reopened schools for grades 0-5 with various precautions (more spacing, more cleaning). We're not planning on sacrificing anyone.

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Alan Weiss

I'm liking Denmark on this, I'm with Bernie.

Everyone has just stopped breathing while Warren Buffet gave an optimistic view of the economy. Of course, he's well over 60, so why are we listening to him. He ought to be hidden away. 

(Buffet lives in a house he bought in the 50s for $31,000 which might be worth about $600,000 today; he drives a six-year-old car that's worth about $5,000. He just sold his entire portfolio of airline stock, about 1.5 billion dollars. Life is sure interesting.)

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scottsimmonds

My prediction... In about 8 months hospitals will be swamped with mothers and fathers holding newborn babies. The economy will come back (it always does). The stockmarket will come back (it always does). Innovation will continue (it always does). In twenty years those babies born in late 2020/early 2021 will enter the workforce in a world of unimaginable wonder.

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Alan Weiss

I tend to agree. I have to tell you, the world is strange. The Prime Minister of the UK just announced the birth of his child with his "fiancee." Marriage rates in the US are quite low. I don't think it bodes well.

Once people end their fears of iatrogenic illness, hospitals will be swamped with all the "traditional" patients who have held off on elective and even mandatory surgeries until the microbes leave town. 

I do think that the fundamental ways we do things will change by about 20-25%. 

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patrickdaly

And there will be massive opportunity in that 20% to 25%.

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popky

Definitely massive opportunity.

I'm waiting to see whether all those postponed surgeries and procedures are a bad or good thing. This article is 5 years old, but I've seen this quoted elsewhere: When doctors go on strike or hospitals close, death rates tend to go down.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/slightly-blighty/201510/why-do-patients-stop-dying-when-doctors-go-strike

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JeffreyScott
19 hours ago, popky said:

Once we start saying it's ok to sacrifice one segment of the population to save another, it becomes a very slippery slope.

Linda I do not agree with this statement, and if you look around these decisions are made all the time.

In fact, I think you will see much more of this type of decision making in our medicine; we pay about twice as much (as % of economy) as other modern countries, and one reason is we try to save everyone of everything.

Edited by JeffreyScott

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popky

Hi Jeffrey. Can you give  examples of cases in the US? Just curious. 

I don’t believe our health care spending is so high because we try to save everyone. Just the opposite. There are several reasons it’s so high: the fact that we do not promote prevention, when we know this will lower costs over time. The  insurance and billing system is broken big time. Hospitals inflate numbers for procedures thru the roof, because insurance carriers only cover a small fraction of the bill, and those paying OOP wind up with outrageous bills they can’t pay. Also, tying health insurance and care to employment makes no sense. The ACA was supposed to fix that, but that didn’t happen. 

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andrewhollo
On 5/3/2020 at 7:00 AM, Alan Weiss said:

As I mentioned elsewhere, the doctor who approved me for the antigen test didn't have his mask on over his nose. 

Here in Melbourne, on Friday, I ran my first face-to-face strategy workshop in a month. With four Professors of Medicine, no less, who work hands-on in clinical practice too. In our state, we have just 59 active cases right now, out of a population of 6.4m, so I think my clients have a good reading on the contagion risks.

We sat slightly further apart than normal, sanitised hands at the beginning and end of the meeting, and avoided physical contact (handshakes). Apart from that perfectly normal.

Andrew

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Alan Weiss

One interpretation of that isn't so much that doctors think this is now safe as it is that you're dealing with health experts who know how to take care of themselves. I'm just pointing out the etiology isn't clear. Was the room and equipment and food and drink sanitized?

Having said that, I think it's nonetheless a good sign, because we have to reopen economies. I've been saying that from the beginning. As entrepreneurs, we're better off for our flexibility, low overhead, and ability to work remotely. But the person who owns the corner store or even a chain of dealerships is dying just as surely as being sick with the disease. Even the large retailers will go bankrupt or merge, as will some airlines. Those are a lot of jobs that will be lost.

As to Jeff and Linda, my observation: We spend a thousand times more on cancer treatment than we do prevention, however, the rates of all cancer deaths except two types (I think) have declined continually over the past decade. 

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Praveen

This Saturday, we had a block party in my court, since the weather was nice.  Everyone barbecued on their own drive way, but people made the rounds, gathering in small groups.  None of us wore masks since we were outside, but we tried to stay about 6 feet away from each other, and we talked together.  It felt really good, like normal times.

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Alan Weiss

You can always throw hot dogs to each other!

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Aviv Ben-Yosef

One of my kids is going back to school tomorrow. We're now allowed to go as far as we'd like from home even for nonessential needs, and are allowed to meet family. My kids visited my parents for the first time in 50ish days and it was incredible.

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Dean Robinson

Like Andrew in Melbourne, I'm recommencing meetings this week with strict protocols in place - physical distancing, hand sanitisers, no handshakes, etc. In my opinion, we've been incredibly successful in containing the situation in Australia through various measures, without going to the hard extent of New Zealand's almost total lockdown. However, remember, we are in early to mid autumn and it appears the virus likes cold weather.

Here's my thoughts:

1. Australia's borders will remain closed for an extended period, except for NZ - there is talk of a "Trans-Tasman bubble".

2. Mandatory 14 day quarantine periods for overseas arrivals will be in place for some time yet.

3. Schools in most states are phasing back, though Victoria, our second largest state by population (Melbourne is the capital) is keeping them closed until July. I have a Victorian based client who is trying to work from home and home school are 6 year old. The stress levels are high and the output is low.

4. Visits to GPs are down 25-30% - meaning underlying health issues are not being diagnosed - a concern I had right from the start. The second wave, to me, we will be undiagnosed or late diagnosed health conditions with, potentially, more costly and more tragic circumstances. Tests for diabetes are down 75% and referrals for cancer diagnosis are down one-third.

5. Australia will focus on re-establishing a manufacturing base that we have let slip away for too long. We're great at innovation - not so great at commercialisation.

6. We will see a significant wave of economic reform take place - industrial relations and taxation will be the first cabs off the rank.

7. Regional economies have been hit badly by the double effects of Summer bushfires and COVID 19. My guess is they will bounce back from people making lifestyle choices about relocating out of the big cities. That means longer term sustainability, not seasonal fluctuations.

8. Our National Cabinet concept, which has been incredibly successful, will continue and will drive reform and innovation at the very highest levels of Federal and State Government in Australia.

 

 

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Becky Morgan
42 minutes ago, Dean Robinson said:

Our National Cabinet concept

Explain please

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Dean Robinson
4 hours ago, Becky Morgan said:

Explain please

In March, our Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, introduced the concept. It's a Cabinet consisting of the PM, the Premiers of the six states and the Chief Ministers of the two territories. It is meeting, virtually, up to twice a week and today, invited the Prime Minister of New Zealand,  Jacinda Ardern, to take part.

It's been incredibly successful in my opinion and has ensured that whilst some states and territories may differ at the edges,  the overall intent has been in the same direction. In some ways, it has been akin to a Government of National Unity, except by invitation.

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Alan Weiss

The fact is, as states and countries "reopen" as this month progresses, we'll actually observe what happens. Up to now, we've been groping in the dark, occasionally hitting the right switch but more often bumping into the walls. 

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scottsimmonds

I just watched an online discussion of credit unions CEOs.  Some ideas of what they see in their post-pandmic futures:

-People will continue to demand a higher percentage of "touchless" transactions. - no-signature debit/credit card, E-sign documents

-All predicted fewer face-to-face transactions in the future. Some are planning lower lobby staffing levels post-pandemic.

-Increase in credit card debt being carried now. That will impact many after the pandemic.

-Lower use of cash in the future. People are getting used to paying with cards for small transactions.

-Card-less ATMs are being asked for by customers who want to limit direct contact with surfaces.

-Several talked about reaching out to their members at the start of the pandemic by phone - how are you doing, can we help.  They will continue that into the future. More reach out to customers.

-Some have seen 20% increase in deposits and an increase in loan payoffs.  (This puzzled me. Perhaps people sold stocks? Many on the call agreed they saw this though.)

-All talked about an increase in team moral because of they all are working to meet the crisis.

-They are expecting some employees will ask to continue to work remotely.  

 

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Alan Weiss

Scott, 

Thanks for sharing. I don't find these especially insightful, more empty predictions. I also find cognitive dissonance. I think people are far less worried about surfaces and touching than authorities think. The government is more paranoid than the citizens.

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patrickdaly

The use of contactless payments has already skyrocketed here. It is a process that was underway and has been accelerated by this crisis. I have been paying both with contactless card transaction and with my “phone“ using Revolut. 
 

I have used cash just once since restrictions started here on March 13th and that was to give a guy a tip who dropped a food order to the house.

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Alan Weiss

And Europe was using credit card machines at tables where that was and is minimally used in the US, and of course, Europe still uses the metric system.

I'm sorry, but the belief that every surface you touch is potentially dangerous is just over-the-top. Remember the lawyers I quote who say, "Just don't open the business tomorrow and you'll be absolutely safe"? Well, if we want to be totally protected, we should just stay home and seal the doors and windows. Even if you somehow managed to feed yourself, what kind of life is that? 

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