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Matthew Colley

When will there be regular flights again in Europe?

Michael O'Leary has said removing the middle seats of flights will make the airlines unprofitable.

Can't we just pay 20% more and get rid of the middle seats for short haul flights?

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patrickdaly

Jacob Rees Mogg is an arch-Brexiteer member of Parliament in the U.K., an aristocrat, who was lampooned by one of his parliamentary colleagues as “the right honourable member for the eighteenth century”. He was a marginal figure until last year, and a figure of some ridicule, who tormented Theresa May and who is now part of Johnson’s government. His chief merit? His Brexity-ness. However, on the point in question I think Jacob is right. 
America in the 1770s didn’t emerge out of nothing. The founding fathers were essentially European, they were of British Protestant stock mostly. Indeed nine of them were born in other parts of the British Empire, namely England, Scotland and Ireland. Hamilton was born in the West Indies. They inherited their thinking, their values, their essence, from Europe. America, historically is an extension of Europe not an exception to it.
American exceptionslism is a myth and America is exceptional only in as much as the number of its citizens who seem to believe in the myth.  
Some other countries have exceptionalism myths, most notably England, France, Russia and China. All delusional, if not, at times, dangerous. 

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patrickdaly
2 hours ago, Matthew Colley said:

When will there be regular flights again in Europe?

Michael O'Leary has said removing the middle seats of flights will make the airlines unprofitable.

Can't we just pay 20% more and get rid of the middle seats for short haul flights?

My guess would be that we will be flying again with all seats filled in September/October if the current reducing trends in infections are maintained in Europe and there is no major resurgence. 

By then, testing and treatments will be more advanced. EU countries will have coordinated their advice regarding travel and intra-EU travel will be feasible.
Long haul, intercontinental flying, I think will be a different kettle of fish. 

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Praveen
2 hours ago, Matthew Colley said:

Michael O'Leary has said removing the middle seats of flights will make the airlines unprofitable

One prototype reverses the middle seat and puts a shield around it:

MW-IE878_avio_20200421120210_ZG.jpg?uuid

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Matthew Colley
40 minutes ago, patrickdaly said:

Jacob Rees Mogg is an arch-Brexiteer member of Parliament in the U.K., an aristocrat, who was lampooned by one of his parliamentary colleagues as “the right honourable member for the eighteenth century”. He was a marginal figure until last year, and a figure of some ridicule, who tormented Theresa May and who is now part of Johnson’s government. His chief merit? His Brexity-ness. However, on the point in question I think Jacob is right. 
America in the 1770s didn’t emerge out of nothing. The founding fathers were essentially European, they were of British Protestant stock mostly. Indeed nine of them were born in other parts of the British Empire, namely England, Scotland and Ireland. Hamilton was born in the West Indies. They inherited their thinking, their values, their essence, from Europe. America, historically is an extension of Europe not an exception to it.
American exceptionslism is a myth and America is exceptional only in as much as the number of its citizens who seem to believe in the myth.  
Some other countries have exceptionalism myths, most notably England, France, Russia and China. All delusional, if not, at times, dangerous. 

Interesting post Patrick. Not sure if Rees-Mogg is strictly an 'aristocrat', but I get your point. 

His father was the editor of The Times, he went to Eton etc etc.

Interesting I just finished a Zoom call with a former client on the East coast of the USA. He used to live in Taunton Massachusetts. I explained I grew up near Taunton, Somerset UK! It got us talking about history. He works in the Cremation and Green funeral business. He has a PhD in History relating to the American Civil war.....

He explained there is a massive under reporting of so called British Americans in the census. In 2017 only 0.6% respond as self identified British American. Yet in the 1980's around 60 million people declared British ancestry. It doesn't really matter, but it is interesting nonetheless.

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patrickdaly

Point taken Matthew, maybe not quite an aristocrat, but definitely a “toff”.

I have heard him garbling on about how his family has been living in the Somerset area “for the best part of a thousand years”.

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Matthew Colley

 

28 minutes ago, Praveen said:

One prototype reverses the middle seat and puts a shield around it:

1MW-IE878_avio_20200421120210_ZG.jpg?uuid

I would pay extra for that one!

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Martyn Drake
7 hours ago, Alan Weiss said:

Matthew, I hate the term "exceptionalism." My point is that English may have originated elsewhere, but it's embrace into today's ubiquity (cab drivers in Kuala Lumpur or beauticians in Guayaquil) is strictly American-driven. The Brits exhausted themselves, albeit heroically, in the war. That was it.

Was the Magna Carta the precursor to the American Constitution. I don't think so.

My point about cash vs. plastic is the inequities faced by those people who are truly at the bottom of the ladder. 

Alan, how do you reconcile your frequent statements that it is futile to compare others to The USA with your hatred of the term exceptionalism? From an outside perspective, exceptionalism seems to be the subtext of much of what you say on international comparisons. 
Re: the prevalence of spoken English, there is little difference actually in its rate of expansion pre- and post-war; I can source you the stats if you like. I don’t doubt that most of its expansion in the last 70 years has been driven by US hegemony, but the rate of growth is fairly even since at least 1900, and its current 1.5bn speakers are due at least as much to empire as to US exports. 
My understanding is the Bill of Rights was the most significant precursor to the US constitution (also British) and Magna Carta has no definite article. Please correct me if I’m wrong. 
Finally, when was the last time inequity was a significant guiding hand on real world progress? Your points about cash and the inequity of cashless, are all absolutely valid, but so we’re the Luddite’s warnings about the exploitation of urban workers, patents and wage deflation. They still lost. 

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Roberta Matuson

@Praveen. I saw that prototype and had to laugh. I’ve flown with two young kids in tow. I could just see the chaos that would occur when your toddler is facing the other way and you can’t reach over to attend to your child. I guess the business person behind you would be pleased to take care of someone else’s tot!

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Alan Weiss

Where do I begin. I said, Patrick, I dislike the word "exceptionalism," but I do wholeheartedly think that America, Martyn, is the greatest experiment in freedom and liberty in history. We are an exception. We saved the world and rebuilt it. Xenophobic? If you want to call it that, fine. But it's objectively true. The Marshall Plan and the rebuilding of Japan were historically generous initiatives and made Japan and Germany two of our closest allies (after Britain). 

Of course the Founding Fathers were European, and the American revolution was a middle-class revolt: merchants and traders, landowners and business people. Like Luther being ignored by the Pope, King George could have kept the place if he had half a brain and the English politicians of the time weren't so bound in ancient policies and puffery. We'd all be one brand of Christian and we'd all be one country!

I'm arguing here for fun, but I'm not being flippant. I've been to more countries probably than anyone in my communities, I'm a globalist, and very day I'm coaching people from a dozen countries, easily. I respect everyone's policies and cultures (except when they violate human dignity) and societies. I think you all know that. 

I'm sorry about the "the" with Magna Carta, but look into my philosophy about typos. I believe we are exceptional, I think what happened with (no "the") Magna Carta was a fundamental shift but it wasn't adhered to, which is, well, somewhat of a weakness. By the way, the Luddites basically objected to mechanized manufacturing undermining craftsman. 

Finally, inequity seems to be rather important in the US, because the Civil War was fought over slavery (not states rights, don't go there). The "me too" movement, the Civil Rights movement, and so on have vastly influenced the direction of this nation. 

If my points about cash are valid, then they ought to be seriously considered, no matter what you think the precedents might be. Eugene McCarthy, running for President unsuccessfully, said, "Whatever is morally necessary must be made politically possible." A lot of people say brilliant things in losing causes, Oscar Wilde being one European who represents that. 

I hope you're all paying as much attention to your businesses as to our little debate here!

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patrickdaly

@Alan Weiss I think there are few places we can get debate so diverse, so immediate and so informed as we get here.

It is fun and it is stimulating to joust rhetorically in this way, disagreeing with respect and trust. It is a credit to you. Thank you.

I think we can combine it with paying  attention to our businesses, and indeed our businesses should benefit because of it, if we really aspire to be globally successful consultants.

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Matthew Colley

Good post. It certainly was not an adversarial debate from my point of view. I find the history very interesting. 

I never knew the US senate had a 'Sergeant of Arms'. It was based on the 'Sergeant of Arms' in the House of Commons, part of the Royal bodyguard. He carries a weighted mallet, you see it sitting on the table of the Speaker. 

Alan i think many of the virtues you describe could be assigned to the Anglosphere as a whole. 

The Marshall Plan was a fantastic thing that allowed for the rebuilding of Europe. But i'm not sure it was 100% ONLY a benevolent gesture. The American economy benefitted also. The money was used to buy goods from the United States and they had to be shipped across the Atlantic on American merchant vessels. It was a win-win. It also cemented reserve currency hegemony. 

It may be that the concept of the 'Anglosphere' is important in the coming decades. It could represent a certain 'world view' (USA, Canada, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Hong Kong, UK etc).

The US may lose its reserve currency status to China in future decades (i personally hope it doesn't).  

Question? How do countries navigate the move from a Unipolar system to something else?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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patrickdaly

The Marshall Plan was an example of enlightened self interest. We are probably going to need more of that in the months and years ahead. 
Don’t think the dollar will be losing its status as the reserve currency of choice to China any time soon. China is shakier that it appears and lacks any credibility in terms of transparency and governance - nobody believes anything they say.

A multipolar world, like the one pre-WW1, can be dangerous if there are not effective mechanisms for multilateral cooperation.
With the likes of Putin, Xi, Trump, Johnson, Bolsonaro, Modi at the helm of some of the major nations right now, it does not augur well at this moment.

It will be interesting to see whether this crisis strengthens this type of leader and their nationalist instincts or whether it leads to a change towards more collaborative leaders as people understand that our biggest challenges transcend international borders. It is all to play for. 

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Martyn Drake

Thanks Alan, as always very well argued and I appreciate the response. For fun, and damn the flippant. 

Re: xenophobic - you may be inferring stuff from other conversations - that honestly wasn’t my angle.

Re: exception/exceptionalism, perhaps I’m less sensitive to the difference you imply with your uses of those two words (very happy to be educated on the nuance), but that aside, absolutely, greatest experiment in freedom is a given. 

However, the USA is not the first world-saviour, nor the first hegemony, nor, I suspect, will it be the last on either account, and that’s the point with regard to progress. You often caution against complacency. But in contrast, you’ve also said many times the US system functions as well as it does in spite of the incumbent power, because of the wisdom of people two centuries dead; and as you mentioned earlier, your units of measurement are based on those of a (British) empire that was killed a century ago (I hear Patrick’s cheers) from which the rest of the world has moved on. 

I know you’re well-travelled, but the whole concept of gas station attendants makes me think of ‘50s movies - you will surely have seen that most first-world countries haven’t had them for decades, so put all that together and what does it say? 

The Marshall plan was unarguably an historic achievement, but compare the USA’s global influence today versus that of 1946 and most disinterested commentators would struggle to avoid the word “decline”. New York has often been called a modern day Rome, but that has connotations. How long can the USA afford to live in the past?

Not sure about the potential for King George to hold the Americas. It’s a good question, but Britain has a long and glorious history of idiot leaders and I fear we are yet to hit the zenith, so, I suspect if it wasn’t him, it would have been the next guy. I dread to think of the state of the world, had the smuggling and tax-dodging clique that became the framers not taken the initiative and liberated the states.  

And last but not least, your McCarthy quote is superlative. But McCarthy lost the election. And yes, “A lot of people say brilliant things in losing causes”. I’m wondering if that’s you on cash. 

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Matthew Colley

The greatest existential threats to world economies can no longer be fought with military might.

Viral pandemics are hard to shoot at and aircraft carries struggle against terrorists.

The Amazon share price has shot up recently due to Jeff Bezos's plans to future proof its supply chain in terms of viral outbreaks. 

It was seen as bold and effective leadership.

The battle grounds have shifted. 

Patrick, this theme could be an unending source of business for you? Future proofing a supply chain?

That must have an international appeal also?

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patrickdaly

Thank you Matthew. I was looking for a theme for a CEO breakfast (virtual) and that might just be it!

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Alan Weiss

You guys are great fun and have the right attitude about debate. I cannot understand the gas station reference, just like the British compound-name guy, but it's probably because I'm not that deep.

America has long been said to be in decline, the modern Rome, the dollar will lose power, the Chinese will take over, we're in moral collapse, yada yada, yada. America will be the world leader in whatever we choose to be for a long time to come. The Roman Empire lasted about 500 years, so we've probably got another 400 before aliens from space give us a problem.

Of course, all of you need to remember, in case hubris sets in, that the dinosaurs lasted for 129 million years, and were only exterminated by a cosmic accident.

Or by God's errant throw to home in a tight game....

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landerson

I will chime in. I am currently using future-proofing manufacturing and supply chain as my overarching theme as well as for my eBook on navigating and successfully emerging from the pandemic, and so I think it is 'spot on'!

Lisa

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Alan Weiss

Lisa, as a layman in the field, I'm hearing "supply chain" more than I ever have in my life. I think you're on to something, and "future-proofing" makes me want to find out what you mean. So far, so good.

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landerson

Alan, if I've intrigued you, I am on a roll! Supply chain is certainly a hot topic. I have been contacted by dozens of media folks including Bloomberg yesterday to do a segment on supply chain issues.

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Alan Weiss

I posted elsewhere that I received a promo email this morning from UPS emphasizing how they can help my critical supply chain decisions! Front and center topic.

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popky
1 hour ago, landerson said:

Alan, if I've intrigued you, I am on a roll!

Figuratively and literally. Lisa is now the go-to person on where did all the toilet paper go. She is a great example of what Alan tells us about making yourself an object of interest and becoming the expert on a hot topic.

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Becky Morgan

Booked my flights (United) to London for GC face-to-face meeting with @Alan Weiss Nov 1-2, 2020.

First class has every seat/bed available for selection. Premium and coach show every other seat on every row available for selection. We’ll see if they change that as flights fill.

PS: no plexiglass reverse facing middle pod shown!

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Linda Henman

I guess no one knows when air travel to Europe will be possible, but what date are the airlines using for taking reservations?

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Becky Morgan
4 hours ago, Linda Henman said:

I guess no one knows when air travel to Europe will be possible, but what date are the airlines using for taking reservations?

I reserved for the dates I want - late Oct - early Nov in Londonfor the 11/1-11/2 meetings with @Alan Weiss

Edited by Becky Morgan
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