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patrickdaly

There is a push in Europe to get travel between countries inside the EU, including air travel, back up and running for the coming summer season.

This will likely require close epidemiological coordination between countries that will take some time to get set up, but I think that will probably happen by July or so.

Ryanair, for example, Europe’s largest carrier, is promoting heavily right now with all the new procedures and cleaning regimes that they have put in place.

For flights to and from destinations outside Europe I have not heard of any concrete plans but this is likely to be further down the road.
 

That said, apparently London is no longer in Europe and England could well be on its way to becoming the 51st state by November. You might not even need a passport to travel there!

Edited by patrickdaly
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Alan Weiss

The Wisconsin courts have just invalidated the state's quarantine, shelter, and isolation rules, effective immediately. The legislature has a week to replace them with something acceptable, but meanwhile, the barn door is open.

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Matthew Colley

The train from London to the South of France looks appealing now.  About 6hrs but close to zero check in and check out time. 

The train is pretty comfortable. 

Flying would normally take 2 hrs. But processing time either side will take ages now. 

There was talk of a 'Boris bridge' from UK to Northern Ireland?  I doubt anyone can afford the Capex now. Probably will be shelved long term. 

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patrickdaly
1 hour ago, Matthew Colley said:

There was talk of a 'Boris bridge' from UK to Northern Ireland?  I doubt anyone can afford the Capex now. Probably will be shelved long term. 

Last time I checked Matthew NI was still in the U.K. I think you meant to say between GB and NI. 
Boris would have had to build some decent roads in Scotland first! Was never going to happen.

All part of the delirium when Boris won the last election. 

All feels like a long time ago now!

All the same, you do still have Brexit to look forward to. That should be fun! And with Boris at the helm, what could possibly go wrong?

Edited by patrickdaly

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Abbas Safaei

I came across this posting, and it is fascinating how applicable what Alan said 12 years for 2008 financial crisis is applicable for the current crisis. Some of his points from the posting:

  • “Prior bubble bursts have left us with railroad systems and information technology of huge advantage.
  • The current rise of the dollar in power should tell you something. It's about safety, and trust, and hope. I have said this before and I know it can sound terribly Chauvinistic, but I'm being candid: The system of government, and values, of the US, no matter how imperfect at times, is what underlies the faith in the country and the system.
  • The historical wonder is that at the Apex of this test, there is an election in the US, calmly conducted, which will determine not merely US policy and its future, but that of a great deal of the world. There is a global currency. It's called the dollar.
  • This [2008 financial crisis] is largely a perceptual problem. Outside of the financial industry, and unsustainable models such as auto manufacture in the US, things aren't all that bad. Once money, which is around, is invested in the market again, retirement funds and others will increase in value. But right now, "doom and gloom" is what the media wants to extol and what people really fear.
  • I think the recovery is going to be faster than people think.
  • I would humbly maintain that no one knows much of anything right now, and the person who admits they are playing it day by day is the one I'll trust. Why anyone would trust a "guru" again is beyond me. Have you seen GE's recent stock price?”

Even though there are interesting forecasting for recovery (e.g., WSJ: link 1, link 2), I use the above points as the heuristics for prediction recovery from COVID-19.

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Alan Weiss

Now, I would want to invest in that guy helping me....

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Matthew Colley
3 hours ago, patrickdaly said:

Last time I checked Matthew NI was still in the U.K. I think you meant to say between GB and NI. 
Boris would have had to build some decent roads in Scotland first! Was never going to happen.

All part of the delirium when Boris won the last election. 

All feels like a long time ago now!

All the same, you do still have Brexit to look forward to. That should be fun! And with Boris at the helm, what could possibly go wrong?

Correct, sorry. GB and NI

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Matthew Colley
2 hours ago, Abbas Safaei said:

I came across this posting, and it is fascinating how applicable what Alan said 12 years for 2008 financial crisis is applicable for the current crisis. Some of his points from the posting:

  • “Prior bubble bursts have left us with railroad systems and information technology of huge advantage.
  • The current rise of the dollar in power should tell you something. It's about safety, and trust, and hope. I have said this before and I know it can sound terribly Chauvinistic, but I'm being candid: The system of government, and values, of the US, no matter how imperfect at times, is what underlies the faith in the country and the system.
  • The historical wonder is that at the Apex of this test, there is an election in the US, calmly conducted, which will determine not merely US policy and its future, but that of a great deal of the world. There is a global currency. It's called the dollar.
  • This [2008 financial crisis] is largely a perceptual problem. Outside of the financial industry, and unsustainable models such as auto manufacture in the US, things aren't all that bad. Once money, which is around, is invested in the market again, retirement funds and others will increase in value. But right now, "doom and gloom" is what the media wants to extol and what people really fear.
  • I think the recovery is going to be faster than people think.
  • I would humbly maintain that no one knows much of anything right now, and the person who admits they are playing it day by day is the one I'll trust. Why anyone would trust a "guru" again is beyond me. Have you seen GE's recent stock price?”

Even though there are interesting forecasting for recovery (e.g., WSJ: link 1, link 2), I use the above points as the heuristics for prediction recovery from COVID-19.

All seems reasonable.

17.5% of the S&P 500 is composed of 5 companies. Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook. Very concentrated. 

The market knows more than I every will. Nevertheless, what does this concentration say about the index?

 

 

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patrickdaly

After over two months of a pretty comprehensive lock down, our cases of infection and mortality in Ireland are rapidly heading towards negligible numbers.

On Monday, businesses will begin to reopen starting with construction and outdoor work. The staged opening has 5 phases between now and full opening on August 10th. 

Around Europe, the Bundesliga (soccer league) came back today in Germany and some beaches reopened in France and Italy. There are moves afoot to salvage at least part of the intra-Europe tourist season and many countries are getting their businesses back up and running now, particularly the likes of Germany, Denmark, Czechia, Austria etc. 
Having got on top of things with testing and physical distancing and bent the curve right down to low levels, things are definitely beginning to move again on the economic front. Even if a second wave comes in the autumn, health services and health infrastructure have much more capacity and capability than they did when this hit first.

The economy here has taken an almighty wallop but is fundamentally sound. There is cautious optimism that we can get back to some sort of normality over the coming weeks.

 

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Becky Morgan
On 5/13/2020 at 3:26 PM, Linda Henman said:

I guess no one knows when air travel to Europe will be possible, but what date are the airlines using for taking reservations?

@Linda Henman Just saw this RE: Italy opening for tourism: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/967e7168-81a0-4a23-928a-a1440e512b5a

 

Edited by Becky Morgan
Better link I hope

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Alan Weiss

What's your point, Matthew? And I'm glad that things I talked about which came true are "reasonable" to you!

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Alan Weiss

The Jersey, Delaware, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island beaches will all be open by the end of May or before. 

Castle Hill Inn has reopened and is hosting meetings, with outdoor dining (only for guests) in Newport. I'm hosting Master Class there in June and will be in a beach house.

I went to La Massaria tonight for takeout, sat at an outside table with the owner, had a drink and a nice talk, and brought home delicious food. He opens Monday with outside seating, and weather permitting, will CALL ME for a reservation! On Monday, I begin again with my trainer, which might be legal and might not be, one of those things....

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Linda Henman

Thanks, Becky.

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Matthew Colley

Is this Oxford vaccine going to work? An announcement on the BBC today suggested a distribution deal with AstraZeneca had been agreed.

 

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popky
45 minutes ago, Matthew Colley said:

Is this Oxford vaccine going to work? An announcement on the BBC today suggested a distribution deal with AstraZeneca had been agreed.

 

It would take an amazing crystal ball to answer that question. Vaccines need to go through a whole process to prove safety and efficacy, then human testing to see that they confer immunity, etc, etc. There's no way to know how this one will do. However, there are literally dozens of vaccine projects in progress now, and hundreds of projects in development for COVID-19  treatments.

No one has ever developed a vaccine for a virus like this in less than 4 years. But never before have so many global resources been focused on one target. So the medical research community is pulling out all the stops to do the best they can for this. The level of cooperation between academics and industry is unprecedented, and it's progressing without regard to national borders or politics.

The Gates Foundation is funding manufacturing and production for 6 of the most promising vaccine candidates in parallel. Bill Gates has said he expects at least 4 or 5 of these to fail, but since they don't know which ones that will be, he is willing to fund production for all of them so the one or two that might work will get out to the world faster.

All this is good news. And it shows that Bernie Sanders is way off base on the bio/pharma industry.

 

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Alan Weiss

Did you see where the authorities are now saying—CDC, no less—that you can't pick up the disease from surfaces!? Next will be the lack of need of masks in most situations. We're having our first meal AT a restaurant, outdoors, tonight, since the craziness began.

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ColleenFrancis

It's understandable that guidance about the disease changes over time. We are only just studying it and learning how it "operates". I suspect that over the next few months guidance will change again multiple times. As Chris likes to remind me, we are watching the Scientific Method work in real time!

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Alan Weiss

I respectfully disagree with Chris ("interesting but not relevant")!!

We are not watching the scientific method, we are watching "trial and error." Quite different, and we've pummeled the economy because of it.

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ColleenFrancis

You don't think they are studying the virus and learning form it as their knowledge improves?

Maybe I'm trusting government institutions more than others but I don't think this announcement that the virus is hard to transmit over hard surfaces was based on opinion and in isolation. Fauci himself has said that more we study Covid, the more we learn, and the more our guidance will change.

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Alan Weiss

But they jumped to the conclusion that it was transmitted on surfaces, people were going crazy not to touch things, and I've been sent movies on how to remove your clothes using sanitary wipes whenever you return home! The scientific method involves control groups and experimental groups, testing with experiments, aligning intended actions with an original hypothesis. I think we're seeing an excellent example of government institutions scrambling to avoid an assumed catastrophe but using almost no judgment on finer points, painting with a broad brush, and perhaps causing more harm than good, complicated by fear and politics.

2013-updated_scientific-method-steps_v6_noheader.png

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Praveen

I've just been washing my hands after coming back home, and washing my hands again before I eat.  I think if you follow that, it will keep you safe from a lot of germs—not just Covid.

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Alan Weiss

And we all realized that before a lot of doctors did....

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Kim Wilkerson
14 hours ago, Alan Weiss said:

Did you see where the authorities are now saying—CDC, no less—that you can't pick up the disease from surfaces!?

Not one article I've seen in the last 48 hours said you CAN'T pick up the disease from surfaces. They all said, "it doesn't easily transmit that way." They still caution that you can become infected by touching a surface with the virus on it and then touching your eyes/nose/mouth. Might seem like a nuance in wording and messaging, but it's not. It's significantly different. 

This is a "first time virus that's affected most of the world." Do we really expect the CDC to have all the answers? Or, is it better to err on the side of caution until they CAN scientifically prove things, especially for something as simple as warning people to be conscious about touching things that might be contaminated. 

 

Edited by Kim Wilkerson
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