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ColleenFrancis

Germany and Denmark recovery

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landerson

A friend is a nurse who is out of work because no one is needed in our hospitals currently. She has time on her hands, and so she talked with doctors from where she used to live in the Midwest. They told her that there are 18 strains, and the NY strain is very different (and more deadly) than the one typically found in CA. I bring this up because although learning from others is a good idea, if the situations are different, there could be different outcomes. It reminds me of Alan talking about looking for distinctions. Of course, it makes me not want to travel to NY anytime soon.

Lisa

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Alan Weiss

New York is shipping out ventilators. I want to tell everyone, for the umpteenth time, that one-off conversations even from putative "experts" are just that. This is a chronic problem for solo consultants—someone tells us we have a good idea for an electric fork at a bar in Topeka, and the next thing I know someone wants me to comment on how to get an electric fork book published. (Women, for some gnostic reason, are far more susceptible than men.)

The FACT here is a nurse who's not needed! (A similar case was reported this morning here of a Rhode Island nurse who volunteered for New York and was paid with others just to sit in a room all day. She came back here.) 

Let's all calm down. 

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Sten Vesterli

We're opening back up in Denmark. Shops outside malls were never ordered to close, some did anyway, but are now reopening. School grade 0-6, Kindergarten, nurseries opened last week. Hairdressers, PTs and others with individual close customer contact this week. Outdoor sports clubs (Golf, Tennis) open next week. Zoos open beginning of May. All with appropriate preventive measures, distancing, etc. Borders, restaurants, cafes, universities still closed.

We had the benefit of a strong wake-up call early in the pandemic when we got 157 infected ski tourists home from an unreported hotspot in Austria and they went around merrily infecting others for a few days until we got a really scary spike. That caused a strong and immediate shutdown supported by all parties.

Now we're back to the normal political process where government and opposition are arguing civilly and based on widely accepted statistics and models from our health authorities. As expected, the left wants to spend money we don't have to pay everyone from state coffers for a long time while the right wants business open as soon as possible. I trust them to find a good compromise.

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Sten Vesterli

Main street in our little suburb. Quieter than normal, but all shops open. 

60592683-6EEF-445C-A619-C668C3D41F8C.jpeg

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Alan Weiss

Is that shop the "old normal" or the "new normal"!?

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JeffreyScott

As I understand it, she is treating the rural parts of Michigan with the same rules as Detroit. Here is a Michigan covid map. https://infogram.com/coronavirus-in-michigan-1h7j4dr3783d2nr

(I have heard the Iowa governor is taking a more logical segregated approach, county by county, is that right @Kim Wilkerson?)

All of my Michigan clients are furious at her. She is destroying the economy and if she doesn't ease things by May 1st, I bet she will have a real riot on her hand.

And to make things more interesting, it is said Biden was eyeing her for VP.

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Sten Vesterli

It's easier to make uniform rules for very small countries like Denmark - we're less than twice of New Jersey.

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ColleenFrancis
35 minutes ago, JeffreyScott said:

As I understand it, she is treating the rural parts of Michigan with the same rules as Detroit. Here is a Michigan covid map. https://infogram.com/coronavirus-in-michigan-1h7j4dr3783d2nr

(I have heard the Iowa governor is taking a more logical segregated approach, county by county, is that right @Kim Wilkerson?)

All of my Michigan clients are furious at her. She is destroying the economy and if she doesn't ease things by May 1st, I bet she will have a real riot on her hand.

And to make things more interesting, it is said Biden was eyeing her for VP.

That's interesting Jeff, as all my Michigan clients are happy with the response. (The are Manufacturing, Ag and Oil and gas). I think there will be extreme reactions on both sides, and I understand them both. Her approval rating is 60% which isn't bad, but will likely slip as time goes on. I also agree that the landscaping ban is stupid. 

@Kevin BerchelmannI suspect some of the boating restrictions are based on the gong show in South Florida Florida where motorized boats are loading up with people and heading out by the hundreds to party at the sand bar. Whereas, the kayak and paddle boarders are heading out solo or in pairs. We have led the way in stupidity down here.....

I'm worried about the protests as they have been largely organized by the Proud Boys, whose extreme views  don't (I think) think represent the majority of Americans.

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ColleenFrancis
18 minutes ago, Sten Vesterli said:

It's easier to make uniform rules for very small countries like Denmark - we're less than twice of New Jersey.

True. Germany will be interesting to follow as well.

 

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Sten Vesterli
26 minutes ago, ColleenFrancis said:

True. Germany will be interesting to follow as well.

Fortunately, they are handling much of it at the state level and their states are small, too (only Bavaria is larger than Denmark).

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patrickdaly

@Sten Vesterliare construction sites and general manufacturing outside of pharma, food and medical open in Denmark?

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Alan Weiss

Corporate clients will have a different view of restrictions than will people individually.

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JeffreyScott

I got off the phone with a Michigan client, he said if she keeps the ban past mid may, he will have to close the doors (even with the PPP loan.)

He plans to call his county Sherriff, to see if they are going to keep enforcing the no-work order, in which case he will go back to work in spite of the decree.

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Kevin Berchelmann
55 minutes ago, ColleenFrancis said:

I suspect some of the boating restrictions are based on the gong show in South Florida Florida where motorized boats are loading up with people and heading out by the hundreds to party at the sand bar.

@ColleenFrancis, that's likely correct, though some context communications may have helped. I believe, when you're trying to restrict personal liberty to a significant degree, the public needs more than just "in support of social distancing" and disingenuous use of "common sense" in describing restrictions. Specific reasons for each prohibition are in order, or it just comes across heavy-handed. Texas governor was good about that (our Lt. Gov is a loon); our local county folks are doing quite poorly in that regard. It's hard to watch declining trends for all measures and support further restrictions. I understand (though disagree) with the arguments, it's just a really difficult sell around here.

More anecdotes: I have two large healthcare system clients, both are decidedly underwhelmed on all fronts and struggling mightily financially, with Covid admissions lower than flu/cold. With pretty steep downward trends in infection, they are both sporting thousands of surplus ventilators. All of the docs I speak to feel misled by unnecessarily inflated early numbers, and their measures don't support social distancing as "causing" the new numbers -- they believe across the board that the numbers started wrong (grossly inflated) and have never corrected completely.

Just anecdotal stuff, but their frustration is palpable. They crack jokes (albeit gallows) about colleagues posting pics on facebook after ending an "exhausting" shift, watching all the non-clinical responses of "hero" and "thanks for your sacrifices," etc. never mentioning to them he had to beg several colleagues just to get some clinical time. 

Just fyi, both clients have had Covid fatalities; neither doubts the seriousness of the virusfor some, only that the meaningful infection and mortality rates are grossly exaggerated.

KB

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Alan Weiss

This is a circular debate, but the issue for me is that all governments have to put small business back in business. They don't need bailouts so much as they need customers. It's ironic we try to save every species from extinction, even though species have become extinct constantly over the millennia, but we don't see the need to save small businesses, arts and cultural groups, and entrepreneurs from extinction.

And for the 400,000th time, what small countries do has very little bearing on what the US can and should do.

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Sten Vesterli
1 hour ago, patrickdaly said:

@Sten Vesterliare construction sites and general manufacturing outside of pharma, food and medical open in Denmark?

Yes, all production, construction, farming running as normal with some precautions (distancing, screens between positions, staggered work hours).

They've actually moved some rail & road maintenance forward because the disruption is lower while there is less traffic.

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patrickdaly

Thanks for that update @Sten Vesterli.  The plan that will be rolled out here in Ireland after May 5th will very likely follow a similar path as in Denmark starting a couple of weeks later.

However, I was stunned watching UK TV  News this evening to hear that their chief medical officer is talking about current restrictions likely to be in place there until the end of the year!!

Edited by patrickdaly

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Alan Weiss

As I've stated, these conversations are really pointless. There is no "royal road" and no one knows what they don't know at the moment. It's ridiculous at both extremes. I'm beyond caring, really, since I don't have to report to an office or go anywhere.

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patrickdaly

They aren’t pointless to the companies that are our clients who are looking to plan what on Earth they are going to do in the coming weeks. Consequently they are not pointless to us either. Your situation is special, not typical.

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Alan Weiss

Maybe so, Patrick, but this is all speculation as far as I can see and nothing upon which to plan. Your clients have no real idea what they're going to do and your best approach is to serve as a trusted advisor as things change, dramatically, rather quickly, positively and negatively. Do you notice that this conversation is very limited? I don't think it's even useful to compare country to country. If it's comforting for some reason, fine with me, but I don't see it as very useful.

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popky

If we're talking about planning for clients, I don't think who does what when is as relevant as the fact that the business world in general is going to go through a major adjustment period.

My guess is it's likely to be 18-24 months before companies can possibly get back to some semblance of where they were in January--and possibly longer for some industries, like airlines.  What we can do as consultants is help them figure out how they get through the murk between now and then and help them thrive through all this ambiguity.

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Kim Wilkerson
12 hours ago, JeffreyScott said:

(I have heard the Iowa governor is taking a more logical segregated approach, county by county, is that right @Kim Wilkerson?)

Jeff -- Contiguous counties are now grouped in "regional zones" for the purpose of mitigation. 99 counties grouped in 6 zones.. So far, there hasn't been any specific order for a region. 

Our governor has been criticized for not doing a formal shelter in place, while at the same time, criticized for shutting down too much.  It's very much a "Goldilock's perspective"––what's too little, what's too much, what's just right. One size (decision) does not fit all. 

 

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Hamish Mackenzie
On 4/22/2020 at 12:29 AM, Kevin Berchelmann said:

Travel between your own homes, if you own two or more, is prohibited.

My brother-in-law was pulled over on his motorbike by the cops in Germany two weeks ago, and when he told them he was on his way to check on his cabin, he was fined and instructed to turn around. They then proceeded to inspect his brand new motorbike and fine him again for the license plate being at the wrong angle by about 5mm. But that's the German police for you. Of course the fact that he is half-Iranian and therefore not very "German-looking" probably didn't help, despite sounding more Bavarian than many 10th generation farmers.

But here's the kicker, if he had just told them he was driving to the mountains to go for a hike, the police couldn't have stopped him or fined him.  Again, pretty inconsistent and nonsensical.

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Sten Vesterli

I think the country, state and county comparisons make sense insofar as they exemplify various approaches.

For a Danish company it might make sense to challenge them: What would you do if Denmark was subjected to a NY-style lockdown tomorrow?

For a US company it might generate some innovative thinking to ask: What would you do if your state opened up like Denmark tomorrow?

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ColleenFrancis

I’m working with global companies who have leaders, customers competitors and teams that serve markets in various states of lockdown. Germany and Denmark being two of them. I want  to hear from as many sources as possible in places that are opening up so that I develop a broader perspective. 

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