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ColleenFrancis

Germany and Denmark recovery

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Alan Weiss

I'm certainly not going to throw a red flag here if several of you find value in the comparisons. But I think you're talking oranges and anvils. Linda is right: The key for us is to help our clients through this mess and into an even better world, which is why I've been touting innovation as a key element in that movement. I find the geopolitical comparisons irrelevant, but that's just Kevin. There's too much momentum to discuss treatment comparisons and restrictions rather than what company leadership should be doing regardless since the restrictions vary and change daily, and no one really knows what the hell they're doing in terms of control, which is pretty evident. And once again, what homogeneous populations do in small countries has virtually nothing to do with huge, heterogeneous populations. In Rhode Island alone, about 45% of infections are Latino, no one knows why. I doubt that would be problem in Denmark or Sweden or South Korea.

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Kevin Berchelmann
11 minutes ago, Alan Weiss said:

I'm certainly not going to throw a red flag here if several of you find value in the comparisons.

I think the actual comparisons are largely an academic exercise; sort of interesting if you like that sort of thing, but not a ton of utility (other than background).

The conversation does bring into clarity that this is not/will not be a one-size fits all recovery sort of thing. Our value, then, as Alan mentioned, would be to help with client thinking, focus and leadership direction within their organization's environment and business model. 

I have a client all-in with head-down hunkering, and others on a free-wheel forward surge. And one or two with a decidedly mixed or confused approach. Lots of opportunity with all of them.

I'm about to get on a 6:00am call with the exec team at a large healthcare system; their nearly-singular focus right now is how to best "open up" and normalize while maintaining appropriate levels of concern and preparedness, both for public optics and for potential reality. Yesterday, two more of that team were added to my individual coaching engagement.

Crazy times, to be sure, but regardless of approach or direction, the craziness needs our help.

KB

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ColleenFrancis

“The conversation does bring into clarity that this is not/will not be a one-size fits all recovery sort of thing. Our value, then, as Alan mentioned, would be to help with client thinking, focus and leadership direction within their organization's environment and business model.”

I agree with this and what I find fascinating about this discussion is that:

1. There is a general sense that we have to help clients “out of this mess” when I’m doing the opposite work right now and helping clients capitalize on the success they are having. 
 

2. This conversation has nothing to do with applying what’s working in other countries to the US. I’m trying to understand what’s going on over there to help my Danish clients and my American clients working with Danish teams and companies.  We have sales teams all over the world operating in different states of lockdown which poses some unique challenges for global sales leaders.  Fun stuff!! 

I can understand the utility of this discussion for those who have insular client basis but for those that work globally don’t we need to understand what’s really going on in various countries in the world that we serve so we can help our clients? 

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Alan Weiss

Colleen, good for you, but MOST clients are not capitalizing on success, nor able to. They are in an ambiguous "mess" (a technical consulting term). And that's because, as I've said a hundred times, we don't know what we don't know and are making bad predictions and overreacting. I have more of a global basis than any of you, albeit retail not corporate, and I know intimately what's going on in Japan or Belgium, Germany or Columbia. Nobody really knows globally, anywhere, either.

I'm always concerned about the Forums becoming a "chat room." If people get utility out of these threads, okay, but I'm with Kevin: I find this highly philosophical and conceptual, and I think the pragmatics are all about putting strategies in place, reacquiring client relationships, reengaging talent, become agile because of continuing disruption, and so forth.

I've said my piece, please continue the conversations if they're beneficial.

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Praveen

Today, our governor in IL extended the stay-at-home order through the end of May,  but is opening a few more businesses:

* Animal Grooming

* Golf Courses (if people keep distancing)

* Greenhouses, Garden Supply Companies and Plant Nurseries

* retail stores not designated as non-essential businesses and operations may re-open to fulfill telephone and online orders through pick-up outside your store and delivery.

* phased opening of state parks

* fishing/boatingt in no more than groups of two.

 

Also, we'll have to wear masks in stores and some elective surgeries will be allowed.

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Alan Weiss

Here's a brilliant opinion piece from this morning's Times.  I don't know if you have to subscribe to read it. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_200425&instance_id=17906&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=25122229&segment_id=25948&user_id=bf82992d5dc6ed896c33246de634ed21

He's talking about need to prevent New York from being a model for the entire nation to emerge from the virus.

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patrickdaly

He makes some very good points. That kind of tight-packed living typical in Italian and Spanish cities may also be a factor of the higher impact there than in some Northern European countries where population centres are much more suburban in nature.

Another interesting, and nuanced, perspective I read in this opinion piece in the WSJ by Allysia Finley on Stanford scientist John Ioannidis’ relatively optimistic thoughts on the subject https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-bearer-of-good-coronavirus-news-11587746176?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

Edited by patrickdaly

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Alan Weiss

Correct, I saw that. My points throughout this crisis are that we have to open our minds to other views and imperfect compromises. The worst case scenarios in the US have not eventuated and apparently aren't going to. That doesn't mean we simply disregard prudent safeguards, but it means we need to redefine "prudent," viz.: don't digest bleach. 

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patrickdaly

This thread has been very useful to me in taking a more rounded and pragmatic view on what is going on. That is good for me, my business and my clients' businesses. 

Nice one!

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Alan Weiss

Good!

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Hamish Mackenzie

In case you are still finding this useful Colleen (and others), here is the latest from Bavaria.

I can now go to the barbers, but I will have to wear a face mask, so he will only be able to cut my hair (and presumably trim my eyebrows), but will not be allowed to give me a shave.

Museums have reopened.

Next Monday all remaining shops are reopening.

On the 18th, outside gastronomy will reopen (beer gardens)

On the 25th, restaurants and bars will reopen (but not theaters and nightclubs as I understand it). - I'm genuinely not sure if I will have to keep raising and lowering my mask between mouthfuls in a restaurant.

Facemasks on public transport and in stores are still compulsory.

There will be a phased reopening of schools from next week.

We are still not supposed to mix with one other non-family member at a time.

There will be no large public events/gatherings of any kind until September at the earliest.

Some international travel restrictions may be eased in June, but that will be just as dependent on what the other countries do of course. (I'm thinking the chances of me being allowed to attend the Mentor Summit in Chicago in September are still very slim).

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Linda Henman

Hamish, do you have school in the summer In Germany? Or, will kids go back to make up for lost time this spring?

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Alan Weiss

I'm allowed to drive wherever I want but I have to wear a blindfold.

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Alan Weiss

Rhode Island enters "phase 1" on May 9, with retail opening with the usual restrictions, and I think hairdressers and manicurists. I'm not sure about gyms, though I'm scheduled to restart with my trainer a week from Monday. I can hold meetings under 50. Phase two, of all is well, will then occur in two more weeks, which would open about everything, maybe even beaches. Parks will be open now.

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Kim Wilkerson
3 hours ago, Alan Weiss said:

Phase two, of all is well, will then occur in two more weeks,

Alan -- What are the considerations for moving into phase two? I'm not looking for the actual metrics, but general guidelines or scientific info. I'm curious if the criteria/guidelines have been communicated/published (whether that be a decline in diagnosis,  number of recovered, decline in deaths, etc). Is there an expectation there will be a measurable increase in confirmed cases for a period of time? I'm curious because this is what Iowa is discussing as the officials stage the reopening by county and by specific type of business. 

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Alan Weiss

Yes, the governor is doing a hell of a job, even though she's boring as hell. They are expecting more cases but they move into phase two with lower deaths and fewer people in the hospitals. If you remove nursing home deaths in Rhode Island, the death rate compared to infections is 1%, and it's really much lower because we don't know how many more people are infected. Some authorities are saying the .05 is probably the maximum percentage of deaths outside of nursing homes. 

Every day the governor publishes an update showing all the relevant metrics AND has a televised press conference.

We need to move forward. I've said that from the beginning and I say it again now. 

Decline in diagnosis I think is pretty meaningless, since the disease is hugely non-fatal. Our hospitals are largely empty and they are begging for medical cases and might have to lay off nurses and staff!!

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Hamish Mackenzie
On 5/5/2020 at 8:30 PM, Linda Henman said:

Hamish, do you have school in the summer In Germany? Or, will kids go back to make up for lost time this spring?

In Bavaria, the schools are usually closed for for 6 weeks from the end of July to the second week of September. Unfortunately, we still have little information about how the schools are going to handle the transition between now and then, and the inevitable shortfalls in learning that have occurred since early-March (the expectation of the school system that two parents working full time can also be full-time teachers to 3 kids has proved to be, erm, overly-optimistic, at least in our case).

My eldest has exams and will be going to a technical college (presumably) in the fall. The younger two will likely be going to school on a one-day-on, one-day-off basis from mid-June to the end of July.

To make matters more complicated, the rules in every state will be different, and the rules about all sorts of things to do with the crisis are a) unclear and b) changing almost daily on the whims/vacillations of various politicians. For example, on Tuesday we were told that families can visit each other, and we can even socialize freely with one other household of friends/neighbours- But yesterday we were told that my wife, her brother and our kids can all visit my mother-in-law for Mothers Day on Sunday, but myself and my sister-in-law are not allowed to join them. So, it's not all bad news.

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patrickdaly
21 minutes ago, Hamish Mackenzie said:

But yesterday we were told that my wife, her brother and our kids can all visit my mother-in-law for Mothers Day on Sunday, but myself and my sister-in-law are not allowed to join them. So, it's not all bad news.

Les Dawson was very fond of his mother-in-law as well!

Edited by patrickdaly

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Hamish Mackenzie

Ah yes, and if I remember right, he also managed to be hilarious without using profanity!

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Sten Vesterli

Our phase 2 reopening has malls and all outdoor sports opening on Monday. Cafes, restaurants, and bars next Monday (on my birthday, appropriately). Also churches, professional sports without spectators, remaining primary school (grade 6-9).

Phase 3 scheduled for June 8 will see max group size up from 10 to 50, and reopening of museums, theaters, zoos, amusement parks, some indoor sports and association meetings.

Phase 4 expected end of summer will see reopening of night clubs, concert venues, gyms, water parks.

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patrickdaly
14 hours ago, Hamish Mackenzie said:

Ah yes, and if I remember right, he also managed to be hilarious without using profanity!

Unlike Bernard Manning for example.

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